Nielsen's Law vs. Nielsen TV Viewership For Network Capacity Planning (2014)

By Michael J. Emmendorfer and Thomas J. Cloonan, ARRIS

Our industry is fully aware of Nielsen’s Law of the maximum Internet service tier offered to consumers, also known these days as the “Billboard Internet Speed”, and that this has been growing at a 50% CAGR since 1982. To date, some MSOs have sized their network on a method of multiplying the billboard speed by either doubling (2X) or tripling (3X) the billboard speed to determine the amount of DOCSIS capacity per service group, this is sort of a Rule of Thumb method for DOCSIS Network Sizing. This method worked for the most part, but this approach will break in the future and we will show why. Additionally, ARRIS plans to unveil a new Traffic Engineering and Capacity Planning Formula to help MSOs properly size their networks to accommodate Nielsen’s Law, Traffic, and Competition. This is called the Network Quality of Experience (NQoE) Formula and is a unit of measure that may be used to size any service provider network and network technology.

Our industry is also fully aware that Internet Traffic or consumer bandwidth demand has seen explosive growth from historic averages. We are also aware that this is in large part driven by over the top (OTT) video services causing explosive growth in Internet Traffic, which may range from 40% to over 100% in annual growth rates. This has moved the symmetry between downstream and upstream traffic from 2:1 or even 4:1 from a decade earlier to now over 10:1. We will examine the impact of video service as a key driver for traffic consumption and growth rates. ARRIS will also show several Internet traffic growth rate predictions that may help network planners.

High-speed Internet is only one service that utilizes spectrum and drives network investment, and this paper examines the role of other services and delivery technologies on network utilization as well. We will show that Coax to the Home (CTTH) will be able to sustain the needs of the customer through the year 2030. Obviously, forecasting until 2030 is difficult, but we want to illustrate the controls the MSOs have and the visibility that traffic may not grow at this rate forever. We will also introduce new network architecture for accommodating 1) the Billboard service tier growth rates and 2) the Internet traffic growth rates. ARRIS will also introduce a new method for network architecture that should reduce capital costs and extend the life of the CTTH network, while competing or beating FTTH networks.

Should our industry migrate to DOCSIS as the unified video delivery network supporting both MSO delivered content and for OTT to extend the life of the HFC?

The paper will unveil: 1. New Traffic Engineering and Capacity Planning formulas 2. New Video Traffic Growth Rate projections 3. A new approach to DOCSIS Network Architecture Capacity 4. A new forecast for Network Capacity through 2030

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