Estimating CATV Demand Patterns For System Development (1974)

By Zelma McC. Huntoon and Gerald Cohen, GTE Laboratories Inc.

This paper describes a methodology for estimating CATV subscriber densities suitable for use in the financial planning and engineering design of a CATV system in a city with good over-the-air broadcast TV reception.

The method provides estimates of demand as a function of time, and confidence limits on these estimates, for sections of the city formed in consideration of various characteristics of the city. The method is based on an advanced econometric model of CATV penetration developed by R.E. Park of the Rand Corporation and takes into account characteristics of local over-the-air broadcast stations, features of the proposed CATV system, demography of the community served, and growth stimulating factors.

The paper includes a brief review of the basic econometric model, a discussion of an adaptation made to it and an illustrative case study.

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